Current Pulse of the Market

May 22, 2025

Statistics and Trends

Absorption‐Rates in Key Markets

In this post, we're going to sample different areas, looking for soft spots. We'll use MSI (Months Supply of Inventory) as our barometer.

“Months Supply of Inventory” (MSI) = Active Listings ÷ Properties currently in contract.

In contract covers both
- “Under contract” ➜ offer accepted, contingencies still open, and
- “Pending” ➜ all contingencies removed, headed to close.
  Because a Bay-Area escrow typically runs ±30 days, dividing actives by today’s “in-contract” count gives a 30-day pulse on how quickly inventory is being absorbed right now.

Reading the gauge

0 – 3 MSI → fast absorption, sellers dominate

3 – 6 MSI → balanced negotiating table

6 + MSI → slow absorption, buyers gain leverage

Is the Market Lean or Lopsided?

A Snapshot Absorption Tour of San Francisco & Marin — May 2025

1 · San Francisco: City-Wide Pulse

Segment	Active	In Contract	MSI	Quick Take
All property types	1,168	384	3.0	Almost perfectly balanced.
Single-family homes	334	168	2.0	Tight; sellers still call the shots.
Condos	686	179	3.8	Leaning buyer-friendly.

2 · Neighborhood Micro-Markets

Single-Family Homes

Pocket / District	Active	In Contract	MSI	Comment
Noe Valley & surrounds (D5)	52	28	1.9	Hottest SFH zone—multiple offers.
Lake District / Sea Cliff / Jordan Park	6	3	2.0	Tight, affluent west-of-park niche.
Pac Hts / Presidio Hts / Marina / Cow Hollow (D7)	31	5	6.2	Softest city pocket; high-end buyers have leverage.

Condos

Pocket / District	Active	In Contract	MSI	Comment
Noe Valley & surrounds (D5)	53	29	1.8	Mirrors SFH heat.
Eureka Valley / Dolores Hts (D5-K)	9	9	1.0	Sold out before the sign’s up.
Pac Hts / Marina / Cow Hollow (D7)	52	22	2.3	Condos outperform neighboring houses.

3 · Marin County Roll-Up

Scope & Property Type	Active	In Contract	MSI	Pulse
County-wide (all types)	628	196	3.2	Neutral.
Single-family only	462	152	3.0	Mirrors macro balance.

Marin Sub-Markets — Single-Family Only

Area	Active	In Contract	MSI	Temperature
Ross Valley + Larkspur/Corte Madera	113	48	2.3	Seller-leaning, especially turnkey.
Mill Valley	57	22	2.6	Slightly looser but still brisk.
Belvedere & Tiburon	54	10	5.4	Softest Marin pocket; luxury slowing.
Belvedere & Tiburon Condos	12	1	12	Buyers firmly in control

4 · Ultra-Luxury Snapshot — $5 Million+ Single-Family Homes

Market	Active	In Contract	MSI	Reality Check
San Francisco $5 M+	43	6	7.1	Deep buyer leverage; patience or price cuts required.
Marin $5 M+	65	4	16.3	Inventory tsunami. Sellers need strategy, staging, and serious pricing discipline.

What It Means for You

If you’re a…	Playbook right now
Buyer (High-end D7 SFH or $5 M+ in Marin/SF)	Negotiate: 7–16 MSI equals pricing power, inspection windows.
Buyer (Noe, Eureka, Mill Valley core)	Pre-underwrite and pounce. Short contingencies or more likely, none.
Seller (Hot pockets ≤ $5 M)	List polished and priced at market to ignite multiple offers; hesitation can slide you from 2 MSI into neutral fast.
Seller (Soft pockets or ultra-luxury)	Lean on data-driven pricing, global marketing, and patience. Consider strategic concessions early to stand out.