December 31, 2021
Market Update + Prediction
Monthly Prediction: Monetary policy will be of paramount importance in 2022
This is where we'll attempt to make a prediction about the future based on all the inputs we receive each month - whether it be boots-on-the-ground experience, roundtable discussions we're participating in, or the countless articles, podcasts, industry reports, and other media consumed. Read at your own risk!
Usually when we talk real estate, we talk micro. Micro markets, hyper-local trends, block-level data— you get the gist. But in 2022 we expect the macro to reign supreme. The Fed has signaled that they intend to raise interest rates, possibly in three separate rate hikes beginning in late spring. Jay Powell and his pals are aiming to tame inflation and stabilize prices. This leads us to believe that the first half of the year will be very robust in real estate, with buyers trying to lock in the lowest rates possible before purchasing power is diminished. With cash depreciating and rate hikes on the horizon, we expect to see a frenzied spring market, with sellers in the driver’s seat and multiple bids the norm. Refis should also be very active during this time.
If the Fed sticks to their plan, the spring buying frenzy should ease up beginning in the summer and continue through the remainder of the year. While prices will continue to rise, the rate of home appreciation will slow. Purchasing power will go down slightly, but buyers may have less competition in the second half, bringing the market more into balance. If we had to wager, we predict home prices to go up another 10-12% next year, with 6-8% of that increase happening in the first half. A portion of appreciation will be in the form of inflation (as was this year - but that's a topic for another newsletter). All this barring any black swan events, of course. Rest assured, we’ll be on top of it - and be sure to stay tuned to the Artemis Advisor for the latest.
Click here to read the San Francisco market report.
Click here to read the North Bay market report.
Thanks for tuning in, have a very Happy New Year, and we'll see you in '22!
Disclaimer NFA / DYOR - Not Financial Advice / Do Your Own Research Information provided herein is for informational purposes only and is subject to change without notice. This publication does not constitute, either explicitly or implicitly, any services or financial advice by Artemis Real Estate. Information provided is not guaranteed, and Artemis does not guarantee the accuracy of any information obtained from a third party. |
Stay up to date on the latest trends
Market Update + Prediction
Arrian Binnings | June 27, 2025
SF + Marin, Macro and Micro
Arrian Binnings | June 16, 2025
Arrian brings back fresh macro insights from a NYC conference
June 12, 2025
Summer 2025 Local Food Scene
June 6, 2025
RealTrends ranks The Binnings Team in the top 1.5% of all agents nationwide!
News
June 2, 2025
The Real Deal interviews Arrian Binnings
Arrian Binnings | May 22, 2025
New York City #CIRESummit2025
Statistics and Trends
Arrian Binnings | May 22, 2025
As measured by absorption (MSI)
Statistics and Trends
Arrian Binnings | May 17, 2025
Understanding the relationship
Statistics and Trends
Arrian Binnings | May 16, 2025
AI Boom & Bust Towns Profiled
From strategy to sold
The Binnings Team is one of the Bay Area's most successful agent teams, consistently ranked among the top-performing agents in San Francisco and Marin. Whether you're buying or selling a home, we can help you get the most for your investment.