The Big Thaw: Why San Francisco’s Housing Market Is Breaking Free While California Stalls

Last week, a reporter from the SF Chronicle reached out asking about something I’d been watching closely all autumn: transaction volume in San Francisco has surged. That’s the real story this season. Homes aren’t just selling a little faster — they’re selling a lot more often. While much of California’s housing market has slowed to a crawl, ours is waking up.

I pulled MLS data for closed sales from August through late October, the heart of our autumn selling season. Transaction volume jumped 18 percent year over year and nearly 30 percent compared to 2023. Median days on market dipped slightly, from 19 in 2024 to 17, showing a quickening pace from listing launch to close date.

For three years, the market had been frozen solid. Sellers stayed put and buyers hesitated. Activity ground to a halt. This autumn, we finally saw the ice crack.

When the Chronicle asked why San Francisco is behaving so differently from the rest of California, I realized the answer reveals something fundamental about this city. We’re not just another housing market — we never have been.

San Francisco has become a pocket of growth in a sea of stagnation. Across California and much of the country, many markets are treading water or sliding backward. But the ones that are performing well share a common thread: they’re tied to enterprise value. That means Wall Street valuations, and that also means tech.

The AI boom isn’t theoretical, it’s tangible. People who left during the pandemic are moving back. Others are arriving for the first time, drawn by opportunity that exists in very few places right now. That inflow has accelerated demand almost overnight — though the groundwork has been building for months.

Supply is tighter too — nearly 30 percent more constrained this autumn than last year. So when rising demand meets shrinking supply, the effect compounds fast. Especially when another ingredient enters the mix: liquidity.

On October 2, OpenAI closed a $6.6 billion secondary sale. Secondary transactions aren’t new, but they’ve become one of the most important sources of capital flowing into our local economy, especially while IPO and venture markets remain quiet. That money doesn’t sit still for long.

Someone sells shares in a secondary, then they start house-hunting. Maybe they’ve been renting in the Mission and now they’re ready to buy in Noe Valley. Maybe they’re living in Mountain View and want to be closer to the city. Maybe they’ve waited two years for rates to drop and finally decide that the cost of waiting outweighs the cost of buying now.

This is the liquidity that traditional housing models often miss. Analysts focus on mortgage rates, employment, and housing starts. Those matter. But in San Francisco, enterprise value and private-market liquidity often matter more.

When the Chronicle asked which parts of the city are heating up most, the honest answer was: everywhere. Some neighborhoods are seeing particularly aggressive competition. Properties priced right are moving in days — sometimes hours. Multiple offers are back. Not on every listing, not at every price point, but often enough that it’s palpable and a change of character.

October held steady at 15 days on market in both 2024 and 2025 — about 20 percent faster than the 19-day median we saw in 2023. The pace has stabilized, but at a much higher velocity than during the freeze.

And that’s the real takeaway. Nearly 1,300 homes closed this autumn, up from under 1,000 two years ago. That’s a structural shift in market psychology. Confidence is returning and the logjam is breaking.

I don’t expect a return to the wildness of 2020 or 2021 — that was an anomaly. But I do expect continued strength, especially if liquidity events keep flowing, AI companies keep expanding, and people keep recognizing that San Francisco remains one of the few places in the world where tomorrow’s economy is being built today.

The big thaw isn’t coming. It’s here!